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Economics & Statistics

30 April 2018

Quantitative Methods (MGM - Module "Research and Communication") - Summer term 2018

Basic Material / Links:

Links to textbooks:
"Analysis of Economics Data"by Gary Koop, and also the "Look inside" possibilities of a bookseller.

"Business Research Methods" by D. R. Cooper and P. S. Schindler. Here you find the searchable Glossary of the 7th edition and also the ppt's used in class. There is also the students' material including (MC-) tests on the student website of the textbook ...

additional books:
"HOW TO Research" by Loraine Blaxter, Christian Hughes and Malcolm Tight, see also excerpt of page 1-20
"Understanding Social Science Research" by Thomas R. Black (with a preview ("look inside" at Amazon): chapter 5 - 8 for a review of statistical methods (plus applications in Excel)
Essential Quantitative Methods For Business, Management and Finance" by Les Oakshott
Alternatively you might check (free) ebooks, for example at: http://bookboon.com/en/statistics-and-mathematics-ebooks e.g.:
---> Applied Statistics by Mohammed A. Shayib: http://bookboon.com/en/applied-statistics-ebook,
---> An introduction to Business Research Methods by Joe Martelli and Sue Greener: http://bookboon.com/en/introduction-to-research-methods-ebook, ...

.
AULIS, the E-Learning-Platform of the Hochschule Bremen - We are going to use the folder Quantitative Methods _ Prof. Dr. Peter Schmidt for our internal communication and to exchange handouts, solutions of the exercises, presentations, data, ...

Assessment:
The assessment is a LEARNING PORTFOLIO. This is a type of assessment in which the students document their own responsibility for their learning process and learning outcome.
Theoretical definition from the module handbook: "A Learning Portfolio consists of several parts which may include individual as well as team results. Part of the final performance are the reflective statements in which the teams and every student critically reviews and evaluates the individual and teams' learning process as well as the roles of the different partial assessments.
   These partial assessments may be essays, concept papers, individual or team presentations, web pages, web logs, reflected literature research in form of documented bibliographies, own analyses including the documentation of case studies, applied methods, term papers, oral/written tests/exams or also other types that can be proposed to the lecturer. Normally 2 to 4 of these types are selected by the student and have to be approved by the lecturer."

Assessment - Required parts of the Learning Portfolio in this class are described in this document - they might be subject to change / discussion during the semester.

Tentative Time Schedule (may be subject to change):

sess.
date / time Research Methods (Theory: chapter in Cooper et. al.) Quantitative Methods (n) = chapter in Koop Material / case (practical work on cases - see also table below)
1 Mon, 12 Mar
9.00 - 10.30

General Introduction (Welcome.ppt)
(the research process)

-> ResMeth2015_Why-and-What.jpg

Preparing Data:
Measurement & Measurement Scales
used for Descriptive Statistics

- Course Material (reader)
- Statistics-QuickStudy (Aulis)

Presentations of the team work tasks (in class)

2

Mon, 12 Mar
10.45 - 12:15

incl. teamwork 11:45-12:15

Part I: Introduction to Business Research
1. Research in Business

11. Measurement +
12. Measurement Scales

 

 


Case study museum
(teamwork in class: "Memo")

 

 

- Case Study: surveys in the Kunsthalle Bremen (Paula in Paris and others):
- Questionnaire
- Dataset in Excel and in SPSS format

3 Mon, 12 Mar
13.15 - 15:00

11. Measurement +
12. Measurement Scales

13.15 - 13:45 short presentation of team work results

 

Preparing Data:
Basic data management in Excel:
descriptive statistics, tables

 

Videos: data handling & analysis in XL (.swf):
- 1_Orientation in Excel (6:51)
- 2_Basic data Analysis in Excel (12:30)
- 3_Filtering Data in Excel (10:14)
-
4_Pivot Tables in Excel (16:09)
-
5_Pivot 2 - several variables in 1 question (5:26)
or in my YouTube channel (.avi)

Data management in Excel see Black, but also the introductory webpage at microsoft.com: "Introduction to Excel Starter") or www.excel-easy.com

4 Tue, 13 Mar
9.00 - 10.30
2. Thinking Like a Researcher  

Descriptive Statistics:

Koop: "Analysis of Economic Data"
Overview/Review chapters (1) to
(3) (correlation)

Presentations of the team work tasks (homework case study Kunsthalle - see table below)

5 Tue, 13 Mar
10.45 - 12.15

Part I: Introduction to Business Research
3. The Research Process 

(4) An introduction to simple regression

Data Management in Excel: correlation and regression analysis. Excel file 

Please download the XL-files by Koop (zip), we are going to use (some of) them in class. Today we will use especially: Forest.xls and HPrice.xls

6 Tue, 13 Mar
13.15 - 14:45/15:00

 

Your questions ...

(4) An introduction to simple regression
practicing exercises


XL_Exercises_Econometrics.xls

Example test, see also student website of Cooper and Schindler
Determination of the topics for the midterm:

7 Mon, 9 Apr
9.00 - 10.30

Midterm test (30 minutes)

 

 


 

 

 

(4) An introduction to simple regression
Simple Regression: Goodness of fit, Causality

The test will contain the topics we'll discuss in class!
Planned topics:
- The concepts discussed about chapter 1 and 3 of Cooper (pages/slides discussed in class)
- Preparing Data: Measurement & Measurement Scales (application to examples)
- chapter 3 (and 4 depending how far we went in class) of Koop about the concepts (not the formulaI definitions)
- you don't have to learn any formula as they will be provided in the test
   - general questions about the concepts "describe", "explain".
   - computation and interpretation of regression results (simple reg.)

Example test, see also student website of Cooper and Schindler
-> CLOSED BOOK test = NO materiatl permitted, not the Statistics-QuickStudy, NO MOBILE PHONES. A calculator will be helpful.

8

Mon, 9 Apr
10.45 - 12:15

 
including:
11:45-12:15
teamwork in class

 

(6) First introduction into: Multiple Regression        
(scanned versions of chap 5 and 6 in Aulis)
Causality, Specification

 

Preparation of case study /
proposal ---------------------------->

Basically the teams should find an own topic reflecting their own interest. The following topics are only examples:

- Hedonic approaches (secondary data)
   o prices for cars, motorcycles, smartphones, cameras … (example for used cars)
   o rental prices, house prices, …
- specific behavior (primary data)
   o demand “functions”:
     + cinema demand
     + alcohol, expenditures for food
     + mobile phones ...

9 Mon, 9 Apr
13.15 - 14:45/15:00

 

 

Inference: Population and sample
chap 18. Hypothesis Testing
    Inference: Population and sample
     ++ Central Limit Theorem

(6) Multiple Regression        
(scanned versions of chap 5 and 6 in Aulis)
Causality, Specification

 

 

- Potential Data Sources (just some suggestions):
IMF: - International Monetary Fund - World Economic Outlook - OECD: Statistics Portal, OECD.Stat Extracts (example for National Accounting) - The World Bank - www.worldbank.org - Data - WTO , Statistics database - CIA Factbook - The UC Atlas of Global Inequality by the University of California, Santa Cruz with the UC Atlas Database - United Nations Statistics Division Database with ComTrade Database - ATTAC international, Public Citizen - www.gapminder.org - ttp://freedomhouse.org - you can of course also use datasets provided by textbooks like Cooper/Schindler and Koop (SCS)

10 Tue, 10 Apr
9.00 - 10.30
 

Teams present their PROPOSAL for the final presentations!
the ppt for the proposal have to be uploaded to AULIS on Monday, 9 April 2018 18:00

The presentation of the proposal can be short. It is important that the basic information about the research question, the data and the model (specification: dependent and independent variables) are presented.
(The final presentation time should be around 5-8 minutes per student. For the final presentation you are requested to deliver a brief handout for all students)

 

11 Tue, 10 Apr
10.45 - 12.15

 

 

 

chap 17. Hypothesis Testing
    Inference: Population and sample
     ++ Central Limit Theorem

chap 16a: Describing Data

(5) Statistical Aspects of Regression

 

(6) Multiple Regression        
(scanned versions of chap 5 and 6 in Aulis)
Causality, Specifications and Applications
with case studies"Explaining House Prices" and "hedonic cars"     -------->

 

(7) Regression with dummy variables
with case study "
Explaining House Prices" and "Firm Foundations in Bremen"

College Town: students' results for simple linear analysis (see tasks in the below)
-
Material/resmeth/CollegeTownQuestion.doc, College_Town.xls

- hedonic regression for used cars
We analyse cars like VW Polo, Opel Corsa, Skoda Fabia, Ford Fiesta
-> HedonicCars.xls

Sample application: Firm Foundations in Bremen:
- Paper and Presentation in German
- Presentation (short version in English)
- Data in Excel format
- SPSS data file, label_en.sps, Reg_Abs_All_en.sps, Reg_Intensi_All_en.sps and an example output

12 Tue, 10 Apr
13.15 - 14:45/15:00

Inference: Population and sample

chap 15a: Determining Sample Size (Random - samples)
-> Confidence Intervals
-> Hypothesis tests

 

Central Limit Theorem (empty sheet used in class)

Video about hypothesis tests (just a further hint, not necessarily exactly the same as we did in class)

Explaining House Prices: XL-file: HPRICE_class.xls, SPSS Label-File
-> Description of some Koop Datasets

13 Mon, 30 Apr
9.00 - 10.30

chap 18. Hypothesis Testing

Presentations of the case studies
->
Handouts and presentations have to be uploaded to AULIS
by Sunday, 29. April 2018 --> 18.00 !!!

Please note the:
- the marking grid that I will use to grade your presentations
- and my "Recommendations for QM presentations 2018.docx"

The presentation time should be 5-8 minutes per student. You are requested to deliver a handout for all students.

To be found in a library database (for example Selected Resources - Faculty 1: International Business at TB Economics and Nautical Sciences at SUUB Bremen) or simply at Google Scholar.

14 Mon, 30 Apr
10.45 - 12.15

tentative:
Part II: The Design of Business Research
6. Research Design: An Overview

7. Secondary Data 

questions and outlook concerning:
(6) Multiple Regression        
(scanned versions of chap 5 and 6 in Aulis)
Causality, Specifications and Applications
with case study "Explaining House Prices"
(7) Regression with dummy variables
with case study "
Explaining House Prices" and "Firm Foundations in Bremen"  
 
15 Mon, 30 Apr
13.15 - 14:45/15:00

Review and conclusion / your questions

Using SPSS
Review of (4) An introduction to simple regression and (5) Statistical Aspects of Regression (some aspects)

additional information:
if you want (=you don't have to!) you can download a trial version of the statistical program SPSS that we are going to use in class.

Statistical software:
- SPSS: (there is trial and student software available)

Statistical software:
- SPSS: IBM Webpage
- EasyReg International, by Herman J. Bierens

Statistical software:
SPSS: Education, product demos (alias PASW)
- Aulis group Folder: ... Literature > SPSS you find some (_older_) Guides (of older versions); you also find the data file und some syntax files
- for more information you can search "SPSS tutorial", "SPSS syntax guide", ... in the web (e.g. "Brief Guide" v24, ...)

- Alternatives: EasyReg International;    SAS, Stata, EViews, ...

  additional information:

Possibilities of the University Library: Econmics & Business Studies, Selected Resources - Faculty 1: International Business, Data Bases and RefWorks

- EconLit
http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?authtype=ip,uid&profile=EHOST&defaultdb=eoh
-
OECD iLibrary: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/
-
Web of Science: http://isiknowledge.com/wos

-> A corrected version of a Reference List (example)

RefWorks:
Gruppencode: RWUBremen
RefWorks | http://www.refworks.com
- RefWorks –Youtube-Channel | http://www.youtube.com/user/ProQuestRefWorks
- RefWorks information on the SuUB homepage
http://www.suub.uni-bremen.de/home-english/refworks-and-publishing/refworks-reference-management/refworks-downloads/
- RefWorks - short guide: http://refworks.com/content/documents/RefWorks_Quick_Start_Guide.pdf

1) The Value of Safety as Revealed in the Swedish Car Market - An Application of the Hedonic Pricing Approach

2) A hedonic analysis of American collectable comic-book prices

3) Cinema Demand in Germany


Teamwork: The Groups are asked to prepare their tasks and present them in class.    (The teams have been build with respect to gender and nationality to assure mixed international teams)

Date \ Team:
All              team number ->
1
2
3
4
5
homework to prepare to:

Names -->
Elvin
Shah Naoaj
Nuttaporn
Mohammad
Emil
Daniel
Nhung
Mohammed Yaseen
Turan
Javid
Brijeshkumar
Carlos Marcelo
Fatemeh
Ramin
Nutteeya
Kishore Chandra
Arianna Gabriela
Mohammad Ataur
Deepak
Maria Camila
Francisco Javier
Vivek
Anass
Shufeng

1st session
teamwork in class

Discussion and brief presentation in class about project -> Memo          

for 2nd session
13 March

maximum of 8 (up to 10 min). per team

Now suppose you deliver the final presentation in front of the management of the Kunsthalle. Tell them about the project and what you did

Data analysis: Describe the ...

+ socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents

+ describe the metric variables and analyse correlations that may make sense (including Inhabit_sqKm and distance)

All Groups: define management dilemas and => Management / Research Questions for your topic !

... origin of the visitors

and their socio-demographic characteristics for the different groups (question 26 ff in last colum)

(multivariate analysis: use pivot-tables to analyse your variable (mean / percentage) broken down by two dimensions)

... Inducement to visit the exhibition (question 1)

and their socio-demographic characteristics for the different groups

(multivariate analysis: use pivot-tables to analyse your variable (mean / percentage) broken down by two dimensions)

... exhibition = reason to visit Bremen (question 3)

and their socio-demographic characteristics for the different groups (these are only the out-of-town visitors)

(multivariate analysis: use pivot-tables to analyse your variable (mean / percentage) broken down by two dimensions)

 ... Motivation to visit the exhibition (question 17)

and their socio-demographic characteristics for the different groups

(multivariate analysis: use pivot-tables to analyse your variable (mean / percentage) broken down by two dimensions)

 ... Media (question 15 - only the yes/no-answers, not the texts)

and their socio-demographic characteristics for the different groups

(multivariate analysis: use pivot-tables to analyse your variable (mean / percentage) broken down by two dimensions)

10 April

"College Town": All groups should perform
(i) one simple correlation and regression (interpret!)    ... and:

(a) price / quantity  (b) advertising expenditures / quantity (c) distance / quantity (d) distance / advertising expenditures (e) price / distance
10 April

CollegeTownQuestion.doc, College_Town.xls

(ii) the multiple regression, answering ...

(j) what happens if FCI increases the rent by 100 and advertising by 20
+ general recommendations
(i) what happens if FCI decreases the rent by 50
+ general recommendations
(h) what happens if FCI increases the rent by 50 and advertising by 10
+ general recommendations
(g) what happens if an appartment building is located 5 miles further away than the average distance
+ general recommendations
(f) what happens if FCI increases the advertising by 10
+ general recommendations
(practicing for the midterm)

Example test
all teams please work on task 3.1 (compute a and b + interprete them and if you want you can try more parts / experiment)

+ individual teams -->

1 2.2 2.3 2.4 4.1
(t.b.a.) please read the papers and deliver a very brief summary of the research question and results in class:
- do NOT spend more than 30-45 minutes to read the paper !!!
- presentation should be 5-10 minutes

1) The Value of Safety as Revealed in the Swedish Car Market - An Application of the Hedonic Pricing Approach

2) A hedonic analysis of American collectable comic-book prices

3) Cinema Demand in Germany  4) Bremen Happiness Index (select one of the other 4)

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Economics & Statistics