So heiße ich :-)

Economics & Statistics

May 2017

Quantitative Methods (MBA and EAM-module "Business Environment") - Summer Term 2017

Basic Material / Links:

"Analysis of Economics Data" by Gary Koop, and "Look inside" possibilities of a bookseller.

"Business Research Methods" by D. R. Cooper and P. S. Schindler. Here you find the searchable Glossary of the 7th edition and also the ppt's used in class. There is also the students' material including (MC-) tests on the student website of the textbook ...

additional books:
"Understanding Social Science Research" by Thomas R. Black, with a preview ("look inside)" at Amazon (chapter 5 - 8 for a review of statistical methods + plus application in Excel)
"HOW TO Research" by Loraine Blaxter, Christian Hughes and Malcolm Tight, see also excerpt of page 1-20

Alternatively you might want to have a look at (free) ebooks, for example at: http://bookboon.com/en/statistics-and-mathematics-ebooks e.g.: http://bookboon.com/en/applied-statistics-ebook, ...

In our AULIS group: Repository » IGC - International Graduate Center » Business Administration (BA MBA) » BA MBA 602-2 Quantitative Methods | SoSe 2017 you find more information and uploads. We are going to use this group for our internal communication and to exchange handouts, solutions of the exercises, presentations, data, ...

Assessment:
The assessment for this unit (U2 of the module) is a case study + presentation.

  •  Each team selects an applied case study (to be approved by the lecturer after a proposal) as cases for the methods discussed in class.
  •  The empirical methods have to include statistical tests and regression analyses.
  •  Approx. 5-10 minutes per student ~> max 30 minutes per team
sess.
date / time Research Methods (Theory: Cooper et. al.) Quantitative Methods (Koop and also “Quick Study” Statistics Overview) Material / case (practical work on cases - see also table below)
1

Fr 7 April

General Introduction (Welcome.ppt)
(the research process)

-> Why Research Methods (MindMap)?

Part I: Introduction to Business Research
1. Research in Business
2. Thinking Like a Researcher  

Basic data management in Excel

Statistics-QuickStudy” Statistics Overview
+ our scheme on the board (Population-Sample)

 

Cooper:
12. Measurement +
13. Measurement Scales

- Course Material (reader)
- Statistics-QuickStudy

- Our Memo about the case study: visitors' survey in a museum:
- Questionnaire
- Dataset in Excel and in SPSS format

D
ata management in Excel see Black, but also the introductory webpage at microsoft.com: "Introduction to Excel Starter") or www.excel-easy.com

Videos: data handling & analysis in XL (.swf):
- 1_Orientation in Excel (6:51)
- 2_Basic data Analysis in Excel (12:30)
- 3_Filtering Data in Excel (10:14)
-
4_Pivot Tables in Excel (16:09)
-
5_Pivot 2 - several variables in 1 question (5:26)
or in my YouTube channel (.avi)

2

Sa, 29 April

morning

Homework for the teams see table below

 

 

3. The Research Process 

Correlation and regression analysis
Data Management in Excel: Excel file and formula

 

Koop: "Analysis of Economic Data"
Overview/Review chapters (1) to (3) (correlation)

(4) An introduction to simple regression
(+ introduction to multiple regression)

Correlations and Causes: (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation)
- The more firemen fighting a fire, the bigger the fire is observed to be.   =>   Therefore firemen cause fire.
- Sleeping with one's shoes on is strongly correlated with waking up with a headache.   =>  Therefore, sleeping with one's shoes on causes headache.
- As ice cream sales increase, the rate of drowning deaths increases sharply.    =>   Therefore, ice cream causes drowning.
- With a decrease in the number of pirates, there has been an increase in global warming over the same period. => Therefore, global warming is caused by a lack of pirates.

3

Fr 12 May

 

Statistical Inference: Population and sample
chap. 15. Determining Sample Size
               Confidence level and Normal curve


chap. 18. Hypothesis Testing

 

 


Koop: "Analysis of Economic Data"

(4) An introduction to simple regression
(5) Statistical Aspects of Regression
(6) Multiple Regression        (scanned versions of chap 5 and 6 in Aulis)

 

Causality, Specifications and Applications
with case study "
Explaining House Prices"

 

 


Please download the XL-files by Koop (zip), we are going to use (some of) them in class. Today we will use especially: Forest.xls and HPrice.xls

- College Town: students' results for simple linear analysis (see tasks in the table below) -> Material/resmeth/CollegeTownQuestion.doc, College_Town.xls

- Hedonic regression for used cars
We analyse cars like VW Polo, Opel Corsa, Skoda Fabia, Ford Fiesta
-> HedonicCars.xls ++ data

Sample application: Firm Foundations in Bremen:
- Paper and Presentation in German
- Presentation (short version in English)
- Data in Excel format
- SPSS data file, label_en.sps, Reg_Abs_All_en.sps, Reg_Intensi_All_en.sps and an example output

Team work tasks (in class)
Case Study II: surveys in the Kunsthalle Bremen (Paula in Paris and others)
- Questionnaire
- Dataset in Excel and in SPSS format
- older dataset (Monet-Exhibition) as Excel-file (7.5 Mb) or zipped (1.9 Mb) plus questionnaire
Central Limit Theorem (empty sheet used in class)

4

Sat 17 June

morning

Teams present proposals for the final presentations!
brief ppt, no specific formal requirements but it should cover:
- Topic (Motivation)
- Research Question(s)
- Your "model"
- Data you want to use (check availability)
(see this example of a good term paper "Happiness Index")
,
but also the
(4) example papers in the next row / right column.

Using SPSS
Review of (4) An introduction to simple regression and (5) Statistical Aspects of Regression (some aspects)
-> free ebook: "SPSS: Stats Practically Short and Simple" by Sidney Tyrrell
additional information: if you want (=you don't have to!) you can download a trial version of the statistical program SPSS that we are going to use in class -> product demos

Review and conclusion + YOUR questions

XL-files by Koop (zip), we are going to use (some of) them in class. Today we will use especially HPrice.xls

(7) Regression with dummy variables
with case study "
Explaining House Prices" and "Firm Foundations in Bremen"

New Chapter 8 Qualitative Choice Models in 4 th edition (p119)
- The Economics of Choice
- Choice Probabilities and the Logit and Probit Models
- Appendix 8.1: Choice Probabilities in the Logit Model

Statistical software (examples):
SPSS: Education, product demos
- Aulis group Folder: ... Literature > SPSS you find some (_older_) Guides (of older versions); you also find the data file und some syntax files
- for more information you can search "SPSS tutorial", "SPSS syntax guide", ... in the web (e.g. "Brief Guide" v22, ...)
- Alternative: EasyReg International, by Herman J. Bierens, SAS, Stata, EViews, ...

Some example papers:
1) The Value of Safety as Revealed in the Swedish Car Market - An Application of the Hedonic Pricing Approach

2) A hedonic analysis of American collectable comic-book prices

3) Cinema Demand in Germany

4) Did you follow the debate about "The 90% question": relationship between debt and growth, see e.g. a report in the Economist or "The Reinhart-Rogoff Reassessment in the Media"?
- The original paper by Reinhart and Rogoff
- The (reply) paper by Herndon, Ash and Pollin, who on their webpage also provide a link to the dataset they used. Why not try it ... ??

*

Fr 23 June

=> time is limited !!

              Teams' presentations

Thank you for uploading the presentations in Aulis up to Friday 10 June 6 p.m.!

The presentation time should be approx. 5-10 minutes per student ~> max 30 minutes per team.
You are expected to deliver a handout for all students.

 

Teamwork: The teams are asked to prepare their tasks and present them in class.

Date \ Group:
All
1
2
3
4
5
 
Teams: -->
Robert
Daniela
Florian
Catharina
Jannik
Christian
Annika
Kian
Clas

1st session
teamwork in class

Discussion and brief presentation in class about project -> Memo          

for 2nd session
29 April

7 to 10 min. per team !!!

Now it's the big day: You've spent the last 5 weeks analysing the data for the museum and today you present your results to the management of your customer:

Introduction: we are ...
Agenda, Topics
+ socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents

All Groups: define management dilemas and => Management / Research Questions for your topic !

... origin of the visitors

and their socio-demographic characteristics for the different groups (question 26 ff in last colum)

including multivariate analysis: use pivot-tables to analyse your variable (mean / percentage) broken down by two dimensions)

... Inducement to visit the exhibition (question 1)

and their socio-demographic characteristics for the different groups

including multivariate analysis: use pivot-tables to analyse your variable (mean / percentage) broken down by two dimensions)

... Reason to visit the exhibition (question 3)

and their socio-demographic characteristics for the different groups (these are only the out-of-town visitors)

including multivariate analysis: use pivot-tables to analyse your variable (mean / percentage) broken down by two dimensions)

 ... Motivation to visit the exhibition (question 17)

and their socio-demographic characteristics for the different groups

including multivariate analysis: use pivot-tables to analyse your variable (mean / percentage) broken down by two dimensions)

 ... Media (question 15 - only the yes/no-answers, not the texts)

and their socio-demographic characteristics for the different groups

including multivariate analysis: use pivot-tables to analyse your variable (mean / percentage) broken down by two dimensions)

(t.b.a.) please read the papers and deliver a very brief summary of the research question and results in class:
- do NOT spend more than 30-45 minutes to read the paper !!!
- presentation should be 5-10 minutes

1) The Value of Safety as Revealed in the Swedish Car Market - An Application of the Hedonic Pricing Approach

2) A hedonic analysis of American collectable comic-book prices

3) Cinema Demand in Germany  4) Bremen Happiness Index (select one of the other 4)

To be used IN class in 3. session
12 May

"College Town": All groups should perform
(i) one simple correlation and regression (interpret!)    ... and:

(a) price / quantity  (b) advertising expenditures / quantity (c) distance / quantity (d) distance / advertising expenditures (e) price / distance
- " -

CollegeTownQuestion.doc, College_Town.xls

(ii) the multiple regression, answering ...

(j) what happens if FCI increases the rent by 100 and advertising by 20
+ general recommendations
(i) what happens if FCI decreases the rent by 50
+ general recommendations
(h) what happens if FCI increases the rent by 50 and advertising by 10
+ general recommendations
(g) what happens if an appartment building is located 5 miles further away than the average distance
+ general recommendations
(f) what happens if FCI increases the advertising by 10
+ general recommendations


Literatur Research:

Possibilities of the University Library: Econmics & Business Studies, Selected Resources - Faculty 1: International Business, Data Bases and RefWorks

- EconLit
- OECD iLibrary: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/
- Web of Science: http://isiknowledge.com/wos

RefWorks: -> http://www.refworks.com (Gruppencode: RWUBremen)
RefWorks –Youtube-Channel | http://www.youtube.com/user/ProQuestRefWorks

- RefWorks information on the SuUB homepage
- RefWorks - short guide
- Modifying an Output Style (and Sharing)

Additional tools
Write’N’Cite (short guide) - http://youtu.be/qObr6QoBh2c
OneLine/Cite View (alternative to Write’n’Cite) - https://www.library.ohiou.edu/find/refworks/oneline-citeview.html
RefGrab-It (web pages) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25yPHGyx3T4

 

Potential Data Sources:

ECB

EC

OECD

World Bank

IMF

WTO

UNCTAD

CIA

Index Mundi

FRED

 

Data Market

Telegraph

US Energy Administration

BBC

International Property Prices

Worldwide Tax

Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

Deutsche Bank Research

Statistical Bureau of the European Commission

Journals

Blogs

 

 

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Additional Material:
- Case study I (students' survey)
- Case study I: questionnaire, homework: presentation
-
Formula by P. Schmidt (German - English)

- Central Limit Theorem (empty sheet)
- Suggestions for Presentation-Topics.doc
- Exam 2006
- Resit Exam 2006/07

- Examples for questions Research Methods
- Questions about estimations and tests


R
emember that there are also (MC-) tests on the website of the textbook ...

Case Study: Survey in the Kunsthalle Bremen (Monet and Camille):
- Presentation van Gogh
- Questionnaire
- Data as Excel-file (7.5 Mb) or zipped (1.9 Mb)

Links:

Statistics:

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Bremen University of Applied Sciences
Department of Business Studies
Economics & Statistics