Current public debates about economic Policy Issues

World Economics Outlook - IMF - July 2024:

On Nov 13 2024 the Council of Economic Experts published its annual report 2024/25:

Addressing shortfalls,
modernising resolutely

• Press Release
• Executive Summary
• 1. (Economic) Upturn Fails to Materialise Despite Improved Global Economy"

Further information (in German):
- AI overview
- Prognosen für Konjunktur in Deutschland 2025 und 2026 (business insider)
- Übersicht: Konjunkturprognosen für Deutschland - Die Vorhersagen der Wirtschaftsschätzer (Tagesschau - April 24?

Joint Economic Forecasts (english)

 On September 26, the Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2024 was published:

German Economy in Transition – Weak Momentum, Low Potential Growth

14 Oct 2024

WHY Economics?
WHY Economic POLICY?
review and new aspects

Review of Mankiw principles 5-7 and 8-10 /
Economic dogmas: Theories - Markets - Governments - People
(recall that you find the texts in the
reader of last semester
Miro board of last semester)

9.1 Business Cycle, uncertainty
-> Economic Sentiment

9.2 Macroeconomic issues
- four key macroeconomic issues
- which other indicators are important?
- which are missing?

9.3 The Circular Flow on Income
find our scetches in Miro (2nd board of last semester). What do you recall?

General topic: AI in our class
                                                      ->    

Welcome.pptx &

 -> Reader Macroeconomics BIM 2024-25

- Why inequality matters | Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz

- A Talk between Joseph E. Stiglitz and Olaf Scholz - Forum New Economy, Berlin 2020 - On the future of the German Economic Model

9.4 National Income Determination & the business cycle

- AD, AS, Macro Equilibrium
- Measurement:
  business cycle
Konjunkturprognosen: Business Forecasts for Germany

Today _in_ class:
-> discuss the following topics:

real <> potential growth:
- in the business cycle
- St. Louis Fed 2021

Economic Sentiment Indicator (fig 9.1 p226) -> ifo Business Climate Index for Germany

German National Accounting @DeStatis:
- Important economic indicators
- current figures: National Accounts at a glance (in German: "Wichtige Zusammenhänge im Überblick")

- Eurostat with National Accounts
- Economic indicators at the OECD
- OECD iLibrary - The OECD's Online Library of Statistical Databases, Books and Periodicals (accessible from the campus net - or via VPN) OECD-report: „How's Life? Measuring Well-being“

21 Oct

Room change to EW 205

10 Measuring Macroeconomic Variables

10.1 Business problem: what are the macroeconomic policy issues?

10.2 GDP: measurement and policy

10.3 Inflation: measurement and policy

10.4 Unemployment

Homework to prepare:
- read the box on page 249
- read chapter 10.2 + find current figures for Germany. Which sources do you find?
Insert your results into your frame in the team Miro board

-> Find current numbers of these key issues - compare your sources and findings:

Price Stability
- Measuring inflation – the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (ECB) A
- Price Kaleidoscope (DeStatis) B

Unemployment:
- Employment@DeStatis C
- ILO D

Balance of Payments:
- Current German BoP (German) E
- OECD Stats F

- How can countries measure the well-being of their citizens? (TED institute)

+++ OECD Centre +++
----------------------------------------------
- How's Life? 2020: Measuring Well-being
- How`s Life? -- Germany
- OECD Better Life Index (map)

Human Development Index HDI
United Nations Development Programme

- World Economic Forum: What's Wrong with GDP?
- Critiques of GDP

The German Statistical Office (DeStatis) publishes Environmental indicators and also an "Indicator Report - Sustainable Development in Germany" + "Indicator Report 2021: Sustainable Development in Germany"

pres. 9

11 Exchange rates and the balance of payments

11.1-11.3 Exchange rates and Forex Markets

(11.4 The balance of payments)

Homework to prepare:
- read chapter 11.1 and 11.2
- find current values for Table 11.1.
   Which sources are helpful here?
- Find current values / articles about the Big Mac Index - what do you think about this concept? (video examples - which do you find helpful?)
- what is arbitrage in this context?
Insert your results into your frame in the team Miro board

-> Which exchange rate regime do you find prefereable?

29 Oct

For new students: Example Test
@the end of lecture
= 13:00 13:15

11.4 The balance of payments

Economic Policy issues
-> Schools of Economic Thought                                                          -->

(house work continued
     / discussion in class)

Some Videos "Fight of the Century" / Fear the boom and the bust
- "Fear the Boom and Bust" a Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem
- Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
and more information like "The Tale of the Dueling Economists".
Texts of the videos

Topics of our first test
• Review of Mankiw principles 5-7
Economic dogmata: Different viewpoints: Neo-Liberal <> Interventionists
• Hierarchy of goals in (social) market economies
• Chapter 9: Definitions about GDP, components
   * MC in the presentation
   * Simple calculation of GDP

pres. 11

11.5 Exchange rates and government policy

11.6 European Monetary Union
history of the European integration

Homework to prepare: (from 28 Oct)
- read chapter 11.1 and 11.2
- find current values for Table 11.1.
   Which sources are helpful here?
- Find current values / articles about the Big Mac Index - what do you think about this concept? (video examples - which do you find helpful?)
- what is arbitrage in this context?
Insert your results into your frame in the team Miro board

-> Which exchange rate regime do you find prefereable?

Important: The test can only be taken at the university (in the PC pool) (I'll take a participants list, you must bring your student ID), if you take it from another place, it doesn't count.
      Tests take place in the last 30 minutes of Tuesdays class = from 13:00-13:30 (test takes 20 minutes)
      Tests are open book but closed net - you won't have access to the internet (except AULIS) and use of any electronic devices is strictly forbidden!

We will use the PC pools A 114 and A 130.
You must know your user ID and password for Aulis! (aulis.hs-bremen.de !)

For new students / internationals: Everyone has to register for the first time, which takes some time. We can do this together, contact me! You must do this before the first test; this is also possible online: further information can be found on this website under ‘Virtual PCs’.
You will not have internet access during the test. As the test is ‘open book’, you can save all the materials you want to use in your own AULIS directory.

Test 1
@the end of lecture = 13:00

You need a photo ID (as the smarthone has to be switched of during the tests)
+ your HS username and password
+ "aulis.hs-bremen.de"

12 Globalization

12.1 Business problem: how do we take advantage of the global economy?
12.2 Why is the global economy developing?

We start with our question from yesterday:
Which was/were the main objective(s) to think about and start a European community / union? (after World War II)
Was it all/mostly about the economy?

pres. 11

pres. 12

Section 5 Macroeconomic Policy

13 Expenditure and fiscal policy

13.1 Business problem: who’s spending and where?

For today, everyone watches

Annenberg Video @ learners.org:
-> 17 The Great Depression and the Keynesian Revolution (Macroeconomics)

- The Keynesian National Income Determination Model: the 45° line (MP4 version)
- The Keynesian National Income Determination Model: The consumption function (MP4 version)

pres. 13

13.2 Consumption, investment expenditure and the business cycle

13.3 Fiscal policy

-> Aspects to prepare for next week:
What is the MPC in Germany / your country?
(for Germany follow the link: Data for Consumption Function @Destatis)
Do you think, a linear function represents the reality?
What would be alternatives?

Helpfull videos:
- Equilibrium in the Keynesian National Income Determination Model: (a) W = J (MP4 version)
- Equilibrium in the Keynesian national income determination model: (b) Y = E (MP4 version)
- The Keynesian Multiplier :The withdrawals and injections approach (MP4 version)

- Deflationary and inflationary gaps (MP4 version)
- Unemployment and inflation in the Keynesian model (MP4 version)

Example for the "Multiplier rounds"

Topics of test 2

• Chapters 11 and 12
- concepts discussed in class
- Information form the presentations (e.g. Review questions ...)

• Types of Economic Policy / Schools of Econoomic Thought
- General idea of Keynesian Economics (provided in the Annenberg video and here)

Test 2

13.2 Consumption, investment expenditure and the business cycle

13.3 Fiscal policy

Addressing shortfalls,
modernising resolutely

• Press Release
• Executive Summary
• 1. (Economic) Upturn Fails to Materialise Despite Improved Global Economy"

Further information (in German):
- AI overview
- Prognosen für Konjunktur in Deutschland 2025 und 2026 (business insider)
- Übersicht: Konjunkturprognosen für Deutschland - Die Vorhersagen der Wirtschaftsschätzer (Tagesschau - April 24?

13.3 Fiscal policy
13.4 Government’s approach to managing fiscal policy

13.5 Foreign trade and aggregate demand

  1) Task 2 of this exam
2) Research the current report of the German Council of Economic Experts:
+ show the most important results on one slide
+ summarize one other topic you find interesting

Topics of our third test

• Chapter 13: Keynesian Economics
  o Basic assumptions and model
  o Idea of the consumption function
     - understand Caut and MPC => values of C, AD, ...
     - be able to compute the equilibrium
  o Equilibria in the model including the multiplier
  o Multiplier (definition, application)
  o Balanced Budget Multiplier

• Types of Economic Policy

26 Nov

13.5 Foreign trade and aggregate demand
13.6 Business application: debt funding and crowding out
13.7 Business application: taxation or government spending?

-> in the December-Blog I am specifically interested in your opinion about the parts of the learning portfolio: which are good, which might be replaced, do you see alternatives? Please keep in mind that less than 3 parts do not make a lot of sense. Should there be more self-responsibility of the students?

YOU are invited to attend the EFA-Symposium 2024

 Main Source : European Central Bank ECB, Educational Sources:
- European Monetary Union explained
- The European Centrag Bank (EU Parlament)
- ECB video: The History of the European Central Bank
- ECB video: Monetary Policy Instruments (2008)           (TARGET 2 = Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement Express Transfer System)

2 Dec

pres. 14

14 Money, banking and interest

14.1 Monetary Environment of Businesses
14.2 What is money?
14.3 The banking system
14.4 Regulation
14.5 Credit creation and the money supply

Monetary Policy -->

-> Which are the Monetary Policy Instruments of the ECB?
Insert your results into your frame in the team Miro board - include the links to your sources, so we can discuss them together

Economic Policy issues
-> Schools of Economic Thought                                                          -->

- definitions of monetary aggregates - MFI information - Inflation
- ppt used in class
- leitzinsen.info   

Some Videos "Fight of the Century" / Fear the boom and the bust
- "Fear the Boom and Bust" a Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem
- Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
and more information like "The Tale of the Dueling Economists".
Texts of the videos

3 Dec

Test 3

pres. X (Unemployment in Spain and Germany)

pres. 15

14 Money, banking and interest

14.1 Monetary Environment of Businesses
14.2 What is money?
14.3 The banking system
14.4 Regulation
14.5 Credit creation and the money supply

   --------------------------------------->

 Main Source : European Central Bank ECB, Educational Sources:
- European Monetary Union explained
- The European Centrag Bank (EU Parlament)
- ECB video: The History of the European Central Bank
- ECB video: Monetary Policy Instruments (2008)           (TARGET 2 = Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement Express Transfer System)

- definitions of monetary aggregates - MFI information - Inflation
- ppt used in class
- leitzinsen.info   

Some Videos "Fight of the Century" / Fear the boom and the bust
- "Fear the Boom and Bust" a Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem
- Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
and more information like "The Tale of the Dueling Economists".
Texts of the videos

Simulation Game TopSim Applied Economics

*** Evaluation ***
please let me know, what you think about this class

14.6 The demand for money
14.7 Money market equilibrium
14.8 Monetary policy

Simulation Game TopSim Applied Economics
Allocation of teams and roles -> see table below.
Please download, (print) and READ the material available in our AULIS-Group - and in your teams' dropbox directory!

Simulation Game TopSim Applied Economics - Introduction by the lecturer
- each team please select one contact person. I need the mobile phone numbers of these contact persons.

Topics of test 4

• Types of Economic Policy / Schools of Econoomic Thought

• Chapter 14: Money, Banks and Interest rates
  + what is money / functions of money
  o Topics from ECB-presentation
  o Esp. Monetary policy instruments
  o Inflation target of the ECB / inflation / deflation

pres. 16

Pre-Presentation
Simulation Game TopSim

15 Inflation, output and economic policy

15.1 Business problem: following an economic event/crisis, how does an
economy return to equilibrium?
15.2 Short- and long-run macroeconomic equilibria
15.3 Employment, inflation and output
15.4 Inflation, aggregate demand and supply

You can (and should!) ask questions about your team's/sectors's topics/decisions (check their office hours or make appointments via email)
- companies: Prof. Dr. Stephan Form, Stephan.Form@hs-bremen.de
- banks: Prof. Dr. Carola Spiecker-Lampe, Carola.Spiecker-Lampe@hs-bremen.de
- CWS, government: Peter Schmidt, Peter.Schmidt@hs-bremen.de

The team grade for the simulation game results from your participation and engagement in the game, which is documented in both presentations (today and end of January, see below). As the teams are relatively big, you can divide them so that some team members deliver the pre-presentation in December and others the final presentation in January.
-> All team members that are listed in the ppt of the final presentation will be awarded the points for the simulation game (so if you team decides that you didn't participate enough and doesn't list your name there, you're not awarded any points for the games).

Individual Presentation:
AI and the job market

Individual Presentation:
Unemployment
(Ger - Europe)

Test 4

14.5 Credit creation & money supply
14.6 The demand for money
14.7 Money market equilibrium
14.8 Monetary policy

16 Supply-side policies and economic growth

potential IA topic:
(Workshop on Negotiation skills / preparation for the simulation game)

Some Videos "Fight of the Century" / Fear the boom and the bust
- "Fear the Boom and Bust" a Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem
- Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
and more information like "The Tale of the Dueling Economists".
Texts of the videos

... and why not enjoy: Deck the Halls with Macro Follies

6 Jan

HAPPY
new Year
2025!

We start the game with a general orientation and your questions

Simulation Game TopSim Applied Economics 

1st round (= period 2)

You have to be prepared =
- HANDBOOKs available (printed or pdf)
- KNOW your roles and tasks => we can start the negociations soon
- at least one team member has the participant SOFTWARE INSTALLED on her/his computer (Windows!)
- make sure you use the DropBox APP on your computer (locally, not only in web-browser, see the screencast in AULIS)

7 Jan

Individual Presentation: Inflation

- " -  Analysis & Discussion

14.6 The demand for money
14.7 Money market equilibrium
14.8 Monetary policy

- Feedback and discussion of results and experiences of the 1st round (= period 2)

Topics of test 5 (preliminary!)

• chapters 13 and 14 (parts discussed up to today)
• General topics of the class: Schools of Economic Thought - (Types of) Economic Policy - Measuring Welfare
• Simulation game: basic definitions from the handbook / pre-presentations of the teams

13 Jan

14 Jan

Indiv. Presentations:
-> "Euro Crisis"
(Lea, Machkour)
-> "Workforce Disruption"
(Rune)

Test 5

*** Evaluation ***
please let me know, what you think about this class (until 17 January)

- " -   Analysis & Discussion

Topics of test 6 (preliminary!)

• Chapter 14: Money, Banks and Interest rates
  + Monetary aggregates (M0, M1, ....)
  + Money creation
• chapters 13
• General topics of the class: Schools of Economic Thought - (Types of) Economic Policy - Measuring Welfare
• Simulation game: definitions from handbooks / pre-presentations of the teams
• Lessons learned from the simulation game up to now

- " -   Analysis & Discussion

please upload your presentations until Tuesday 16:00 !!

Simulation Game TopSim Applied Economics - Final presentations of teams: (~ 15 min)
- basic results of your sector
- basic results for the economy as a whole
- what did you learn for your sector?
- what did you learn about Economics?
- what are advantages and disadvantages of the simulatioin game TopSim?
- do you recommend to use TopSim in future classes / what should be changed?
- ... (+ your own aspects!)
these questions are not a structure to be followed point after point but aspects that should help you to prepare your concluding presentation containing your "message" about the simulation game.

Test 6

further topics
    /
presentations

Review and conclusion
+ YOUR questions

Video about economic approaches: "60 Second Adventures in Economics"

Some Videos "Fight of the Century" / Fear the boom and the bust
- "Fear the Boom and Bust" a Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem
- Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
and more information like "The Tale of the Dueling Economists".
Texts of the videos