Outlook:

Current
public
debates
about
economic
Policy
Issues

World EconomicsOutlook - IMF - April 2025:

A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts

WEO Database

Annual Report 2025 (November 25)

Creating new prospects for tomorrow – not squandering opportunities

• Press Release
• Executive Summary

Joint Economic Forecasts (english)       ------>

 On September 25, the Joint Economic Forecast Autum 2025 was published:

Fiscal Stimulus Masks Structural Weakness

• Key Economic Figures for Germany
• Press Release

Further information:
- AI overview (7 Jan 26 - renew it any time using the prompt)
- Konjunkturprognosen für Deutschland (Tagesschau 18 Nov 25)
- Prognosen für Konjunktur in Deutschland 2025 und 2026 (business insider 15.4.25 - in German)

15 Oct 2025

WHY Economics?
WHY Economic POLICY?
review and new aspects

Review of Mankiw principles 5-7 and 8-10 /
Economic dogmas: Theories - Markets - Governments - People
(recall that you find the material in the
reader of last semester
Miro board of Econs I)

9.1 Business Cycle, uncertainty
-> Economic Sentiment

9.2 Macroeconomic issues
- four key macroeconomic issues
- which other indicators are important?
- which are missing?

9.3 The Circular Flow on Income
find our scetches in Miro (2nd board of last semester). What do you recall?

General topic: AI in our class
                                                      ->    

Welcome.pptx &

 -> Reader Macroeconomics BIM 2025-26

- Why inequality matters | Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz

- A Talk between Joseph E. Stiglitz and Olaf Scholz - Forum New Economy, Berlin 2020 - On the future of the German Economic Model

-> Link to our Miro boards used in class in AULIS)
The links to the Miro boards for the videos are here.

9.4 National Income Determination & the business cycle

- AD, AS, Macro Equilibrium
- Measurement:
  business cycle
Konjunkturprognosen: Business Forecasts for Germany

BEFORE class: (=start at 15:00)
9-2 YouTube Miro board

Today _in_ class:
-> discuss the following topics:

real <> potential growth:
- in the business cycle
- St. Louis Fed 2021

Economic Sentiment Indicator (fig 9.1 p226) -> ifo Business Climate Index for Germany

German National Accounting @DeStatis:
- Important economic indicators
- current figures: National Accounts at a glance (in German: "Wichtige Zusammenhänge im Überblick")

- Eurostat with National Accounts
- Economic indicators at the OECD
- OECD iLibrary - The OECD's Online Library of Statistical Databases, Books and Periodicals (accessible from the campus net - or via VPN) OECD-report: „How's Life? Measuring Well-being“

22 Oct

10 Measuring Macroeconomic Variables

10.1 Business problem: what are the macroeconomic policy issues?

10.2 GDP: measurement and policy

10.3 Inflation: measurement and policy

10.4 Unemployment

Homework to prepare:
10 YouTube Miro board
- read the box on page 249
- read chapter 10.2 + find current figures for Germany. Which sources do you find?
Insert your results into your frame in the team Miro board

-> Find current numbers of these key issues - compare your sources and findings:
-> house work for 29/30 October:

Price Stability
- Measuring inflation – the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (ECB) A
- Price Kaleidoscope (DeStatis) B

Unemployment:
- Employment@DeStatis C
- ILO D

Balance of Payments:
- Current German BoP (German) E
- OECD Stats F

- How can countries measure the well-being of their citizens? (TED institute)

+++ OECD Centre +++
----------------------------------------------
- How's Life? 2020: Measuring Well-being
- How`s Life? -- Germany
- OECD Better Life Index (map)

Human Development Index HDI
United Nations Development Programme

- World Economic Forum: What's Wrong with GDP?
- Critiques of GDP

The German Statistical Office (DeStatis) publishes Environmental indicators and also an "Indicator Report - Sustainable Development in Germany" + "Indicator Report 2021: Sustainable Development in Germany"

Class cancelled due to illness

Class cancelled due to illness

29 Oct

(NO
Example Test)

pres. 9

30 Oct

11 Exchange rates and the balance of payments

11.1-11.3 Exchange rates and Forex Markets

Homework to prepare:
11 Video Miro board
- read chapter 11.1 and 11.2
- find current values for Table 11.1.
   Which sources are helpful here?
- Find current values / articles about the Big Mac Index - what do you think about this concept? (video examples - which do you find helpful?)
- what is "arbitrage" in this context?
Insert your results into your frame in the team Miro board

-> Which exchange rate regime do you find prefereable?

Topics of our first test
• Review of Mankiw principles 5-7
Economic dogmata: Different viewpoints: Neo-Liberal <> Interventionists
• Hierarchy of goals in (social) market economies
• Chapter 9: Definitions about GDP, components
   * MC in the presentation
   * Simple calculation of GDP

Test 1
@the end of lecture = 17:15

You need a photo ID (as the smarthone has to be switched of during the tests)

11.4 The balance of payments

Today we start chapter 11, please be prepared

(house work continued
     / discussion in class)

Important: The test can only be taken at the university (in our classroom ) (I'll take a participants list, you must bring a photo ID (as the smarthone has to be switched of during the tests)), if you take it from another place, it doesn't count.
-> single questions require a MOUSE or touch pad - try the example!

      Tests take place in the last 30 minutes of Wednesdays class = from 17:15-17:45 (test takes 20 minutes)

      Tests are open book but closed net - you are not allowed to use any internet sources (except AULIS and Miro) or communication and the use of other any electronic devices is strictly forbidden!

pres. 11

11.5 Exchange rates and government policy

11.6 European Monetary Union
history of the European integration

Homework to prepare: (from 28 Oct)
- read chapter 11.1 and 11.2
- find current values for Table 11.1.
   Which sources are helpful here?
- Find current values / articles about the Big Mac Index - what do you think about this concept? (video examples - which do you find helpful?)
- what is arbitrage in this context?
Insert your results into your frame in the team Miro board

-> Which exchange rate regime do you find preferable?

12 Globalization

12.1 Business problem: how do we take advantage of the global economy?
12.2 Why is the global economy developing?

Information about the:
IFA-Symposium 2025 - Flyer

Test 2
@the end of lecture = 17:15

You need a photo ID (as the smarthone has to be switched of during the tests)

Section 5 Macroeconomic Policy

13 Expenditure and fiscal policy

13.1 Business problem: who’s spending and where?

Economic Policy issues
-> Schools of Economic Thought

+ for today, everyone watches

Annenberg Video @ learners.org:
-> 17 The Great Depression and the Keynesian Revolution (Macroeconomics)

On Nov 12 2025 the Council of Economic Experts published their -----------> Annual Report 2025

Creating new prospects for tomorrow – not squandering opportunities

• Press Release
• Executive Summary

pres. 13

13.2 Consumption, investment expenditure and the business cycle

presentation X:
Rising global public dept & fiscal sustainability

13.3 Fiscal policy

13.4 Government’s approach to managing fiscal policy

Example for thSome Videos "Fight of the Century" / Fear the boom and the bust
- "Fear the Boom and Bust" a Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem
- Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
and more information like "The Tale of the Dueling Economists".
Texts of the videos

- Data for Consumption Function @Destatis (open (download) "Domestic Product - First annual results":
" National Accounts - Domestic Product - First annual results - Fachserie 18 Reihe 1.1 - 2023 (xlsx)"
at end of the page
(time series up to 2019 incl. regression)

- "Multiplier rounds"

27 Nov

NO Class
you are invited to attend the

IFA-Symposium 2025

Topics of our third test

• Chapter 13: Keynesian Economics
  o Basic assumptions and model
  o Idea of the consumption function
     - understand Caut and MPC => values of C, AD, ...
     - be able to compute the equilibrium
  o Equilibria in the model including the multiplier
  o Multiplier (definition, application)

• Types of Economic Policy / Schools of Econoomic Thought
- General idea of Keynesian Economics (provided in the Annenberg video and here)

3 Dec

Test 3
@the end of lecture = 17:15
You need a photo ID (as the smarthone has to be switched of during the tests)

13.3 Fiscal policy
13.4 Government’s approach to managing fiscal policy

13.5 Foreign trade and aggregate demand

  1) Task 2 of this exam
2) Research the current report of the German Council of Economic Experts:
+ show the most important results on one slide
+ summarize one other topic you find interesting

4 Dec

pres. 14

13.3 Fiscal policy
13.4 Government’s approach to managing fiscal policy

13.5 Foreign trade and aggregate demand

14 Money, banking and interest

14.1 Monetary Environment of Businesses
14.2 What is money?
14.3 The banking system

We start with the question from our class:
Which was/were the main objective(s) to think about and start a European community / union? (after World War II)
Was it all/mostly about the economy?
 

- "What is Inflation?", Basket of goods, HICP ... @ECB
- "Inflation diagnostics" (ECB Blog)
- CPI - Consumer Price Index @DeStatis (Statistisches Bundesamt)
- Price Kaleidoscope, also at DeStatis

 Main Source : European Central Bank ECB, Educational Sources:
- European Monetary Union explained
- The European Centrag Bank (EU Parlament)
- ECB video: The History of the European Central Bank
- ECB video: Monetary Policy Instruments (2008)           (TARGET 2 = Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement Express Transfer System)

Videos about the:
"Fight of the Century" / Fear the boom and the bust
- "Fear the Boom and Bust" a Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem
- Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
and more information like "The Tale of the Dueling Economists".
Texts of the videos

14 Money, banking and interest

14.3 The banking system
14.4 Regulation
14.5 Credit creation and the money supply

Monetary Policy -->

-> Which are the Monetary Policy Instruments of the ECB?
Insert your results into your frame in the team Miro board - include the links to your sources, so we can discuss them together

Economic Policy issues
-> Schools of Economic Thought
   --------------------------------------->

- definitions of monetary aggregates - MFI information - Inflation
- ppt used in class
- leitzinsen.info   

 Main Source : European Central Bank ECB, Educational Sources:
- European Monetary Union explained
- The European Centrag Bank (EU Parlament)
- ECB video: The History of the European Central Bank
- ECB video: Monetary Policy Instruments (2008)           (TARGET 2 = Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement Express Transfer System)

- definitions of monetary aggregates - MFI information - Inflation
- ppt used in class
- leitzinsen.info   

Some Videos "Fight of the Century" / Fear the boom and the bust
- "Fear the Boom and Bust" a Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem
- Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
and more information like "The Tale of the Dueling Economists".
Texts of the videos

11 Dec

room change:

EW 202

pres. 15

14:00-15:00
we attend together the
Public Discussion:

“Academic Freedom under Pressure and International Student Exchange” room A01

International Day

14 Money, banking and interest

14.4 Regulation
14.5 Credit creation and the money supply

Simulation Game TopSim Applied Economics

Simulation Game TopSim Applied Economics
Allocation of teams and roles -> see table below.
Please download, (print) and READ the material available in our AULIS-Group - and in your teams' dropbox directory!

Simulation Game TopSim Applied Economics - Introduction by the lecturer
- each team please select one contact person. I need the mobile phone numbers of these contact persons.

Topics of test 4

• Types of Economic Policy / Schools of Econoomic Thought
  o Keynesian Model including the multipler (rounds), also the Balanced Budget Multiplier

• Chapter 14: Money, Banks and Interest rates
  + what is money / functions of money

Test 4

14 Money, banking and interest

14.4 Regulation
14.5 Credit creation and the money supply

Some Videos "Fight of the Century" / Fear the boom and the bust
- "Fear the Boom and Bust" a Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem
- Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
and more information like "The Tale of the Dueling Economists".
Texts of the videos

... and why not enjoy: Deck the Halls with Macro Follies

pres. 16

Pre-Presentation
Simulation Game TopSim

14 Money, banking and interest

14.4 Regulation
14.5 Credit creation and the money supply

You can (and should!) ask questions about your team's/sectors's topics/decisions (check their office hours or make appointments via email)
- companies: Prof. Dr. Stephan Form, Stephan.Form@hs-bremen.de
- banks: Prof. Dr. Carola Spiecker-Lampe, Carola.Spiecker-Lampe@hs-bremen.de
- CWS, government: Peter Schmidt, Peter.Schmidt@hs-bremen.de

The team grade for the simulation game results from your participation and engagement in the game, which is documented in both presentations (today and end of January, see below). As the teams are relatively big, you can divide them so that some team members deliver the pre-presentation in December and others the final presentation in January.
-> All team members that are listed in the ppt of the final presentation will be awarded the points for the simulation game (so if you team decides that you didn't participate enough and doesn't list your name there, you're not awarded any points for the game).

7 Jan

HAPPY
new Year
2026!

Individual Presentations:

- Inflation

- How does Aging population affect the economy

14 Money, banking and interest

14.4 Regulation
14.5 Credit creation and the money supply

15 Inflation, output and economic policy

16 Supply-side policies and economic growth

potential IA topic:
(Workshop on Negotiation skills / preparation for the simulation game)

Economic Policy issues
- Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the IS/LM model
- recall the Schools of Economic Thought ...

8 Jan

Simulation Game TopSim Applied Economics 

1st round (= period 2)

You have to be prepared =
- HANDBOOKs available (printed or pdf)
- KNOW your roles and tasks => we can start the negociations soon
- at least one team member has the participant SOFTWARE INSTALLED on her/his computer (Windows!)
- make sure you use the DropBox APP on your computer (locally, not only in web-browser, see the screencast in AULIS)

14 Jan

perhaps(?)

Test 5

- " -  Analysis & Discussion

- Feedback and discussion of results and experiences of the 1st round (= period 2)

15 Jan

perhaps(?)

- " -   Analysis & Discussion

Results of you Evaluation - Thank you!

Topics of test 6 (preliminary!)

• Chapter 14: Money, Banks and Interest rates
  + Monetary aggregates (M0, M1, ....)
  + Money creation -> supply
  + The demand for money -> Money market equilibrium
  + Monetary policy
• chapter 13 (review)
• General topics of the class: Schools of Economic Thought - (Types of) Economic Policy - Measuring Welfare
• Simulation game: definitions from handbooks / pre-presentations of the teams
• Lessons learned from the simulation game

 Test 6

- " -   Analysis & Discussion

Simulation Game TopSim Applied Economics - Final presentations of teams: (~ 15 min)
-> Tell a story about your experience with TopSim - like:
    - basic results of your sector
    - basic results for the economy as a whole
    - what did you learn for your sector?
    - what did you learn about Economics?
    - what worked as expected, what didn't?
    - what surprised you?
    - what are advantages and disadvantages
       of the simulatioin game TopSim?
    - do you recommend to use TopSim in future classes
       / what should be changed?
    - ... (+ your own aspects!)
these questions are not a structure to be followed point after point but aspects that should help you to prepare your concluding presentation containing your "message" about the simulation game. You don't have to address all points - tell yours story, preferably ending with your personal message.

Video about economic approaches: "60 Second Adventures in Economics"

Some Videos "Fight of the Century" / Fear the boom and the bust
- "Fear the Boom and Bust" a Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem
- Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
and more information like "The Tale of the Dueling Economists".
Texts of the videos