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Economics & Statistics

Springterm 2024

Quantitative Methods (MBA module "Business Environment") - Summer Term 2024

Basic Material / Links:

"Analysis of Economics Data" by Gary Koop, and "Look inside" possibilities of a bookseller.
You find the book "Analysis of Financial Data" as ebook (full text) in our library. The chapters we discuss here are relatively similar.

"Business Research Methods" by D. R. Cooper and P. S. Schindler. Here you find the searchable Glossary of the 7th edition and also the ppt's used in class. There is also the students' material including (MC-) tests on the student website of the textbook ...
> ebook (fulltext in our library)

additional books:
"Understanding Social Science Research" by Thomas R. Black, with a preview ("look inside)" at Amazon (chapter 5 - 8 for a review of statistical methods + plus application in Excel)
"HOW TO Research" by Loraine Blaxter, Christian Hughes and Malcolm Tight, see also ebook (SuUB)

Alternatively you might want to have a look at (free) ebooks, for example at: http://bookboon.com/en/statistics-and-mathematics-ebooks e.g.: http://bookboon.com/en/applied-statistics-ebook, ...

 

In our AULIS group: Magazin Institut für Wiss. Weiterbildung (IWW) / Graduate + Professional School (G+PS) International Graduate Center (IGC) Master of Business Administration (BA MBA) Lehrveranstaltungen Sommersemester 2024 (MBA) BA MBA Modul 02 Business Environment / Unit 2 Quantitative Methods, you find more information and uploads. We are going to use this group for our internal communication and to exchange handouts, solutions of the exercises, presentations, data, ...

Assessment: Learning Portfolio
- U1 (Economics - Peter Schmidt): Test (Sat, 22 June 2024 (midterm) test 60 minutes (AULIS) - 50% of final grade)
- U2 (Quant. Methods - Peter Schmidt): case study -> presentation (Sat, 29 June 2024 - 25 % of final grade, see below)
- U3 (Global Econs - Shravan Kumar): case study (July 2024 - 25 % of final grade)

+ bonus points (House Cup)

The Assessment for this unit Quantitative Methods (U2 of the module) is a case study + presentation.

  •  Each team selects an applied case study (to be approved by the lecturer after a proposal) as cases for the methods discussed in class.
  •  The empirical methods have to include statistical tests and multiple regression analyses.
  •  Approx. 5-10 minutes per student ~> max 30 minutes per team
 
sess.
date / time Research Methods (Theory: Cooper et. al.) Quantitative Methods (Koop and also “Quick Study” Statistics Overview) Material / case (practical work on cases - see also table below)
1
Fr, 03.05.24 18:00

General Introduction (Welcome.ppt)
(the research process)

-> Why Research Methods (MindMap)?

Part I: Introduction to Business Research
1. Research in Business
3. Thinking Like a Researcher  
     - Types of variables (reader pp. 3-5)

Preparing Data:
Basic data management in Excel:
descriptive statistics, tables

Statistics-QuickStudy” Statistics Overview
+ our scheme on the board (Population-Sample)


Cooper:
11. Measurement
       -> Skales of variables (reader pp. 10-12)
12. Measurement Scales

- Course Material (reader)
- Statistics-QuickStudy

- Our Memo about the case study: visitors' survey in a museum:
- Questionnaire
- Dataset in Excel and in SPSS format

Data management in Excel see Black, but also the introductory webpage at microsoft.com: "Introduction to Excel Starter") or www.excel-easy.com

Videos: data handling & analysis in Excel in my YouTube channel (.avi)

2
Sa, 04.05.24
15:00 !!
   -16:30


 

3. The Research Process 

 

 

Please prepare the team house-work - see table below

Correlation and regression analysis
in Excel: XL_Exercises_Corr_Reg.xls
please download, we'll use it today in class
(spoiler-alert: here you find the solutions)
 

Koop: "Analysis of Economic Data"
Overview/Review chapters (1) to ...

(3) (correlation) (reader pp. 35 ff)

(4) An introduction to simple regression
(+ preview multiple regression) (reader pp. 39 ff)

Correlations and Causes: (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation)
- The more firemen fighting a fire, the bigger the fire is observed to be.   =>   Therefore firemen cause fire.
- Sleeping with one's shoes on is strongly correlated with waking up with a headache.   =>  Therefore, sleeping with one's shoes on causes headache.
- As ice cream sales increase, the rate of drowning deaths increases sharply.    =>   Therefore, ice cream causes drowning.
- With a decrease in the number of pirates, there has been an increase in global warming over the same period. => Therefore, global warming is caused by a lack of pirates.

3
Sa 25.05.24 13:15

1) house-work - see table below

 

 

 

 

 

Statistical Inference: Population and sample
chap. 15. Determining Sample Size
               Confidence level and Normal curve


chap. 18. Hypothesis Testing

Correlation and regression analysis
in Excel: XL_Exercises_Corr_Reg.xls
please download, we'll use it today in class
(spoiler-alert: here you find the solutions)

(3) (correlation) (reader pp. 35 ff)

 

Koop: "Analysis of Economic Data"

(4) An introduction to simple regression
(5) Statistical Aspects of Regression (reader pp. 46 ff)
(6) Multiple Regression        (scanned versions of chap 5 and 6 in Aulis) (reader pp. 50 ff)

Causality, Specifications and Applications
with case study "Explaining House Prices"

Please download the XL-files by Koop (zip), we are going to use (some of) them in class. Today we will use especially: Forest.xls and HPrice.xls

- College Town: students' results for simple linear analysis (see tasks in the table below) -> Material/resmeth/CollegeTownQuestion.doc, College_Town.xls

- Hedonic regression for used cars
We analyse cars like VW Polo, Opel Corsa, Skoda Fabia, Ford Fiesta
-> HedonicCars.xls ++ data

Sample application: Firm Foundations in Bremen:
- Paper and Presentation in German
- Presentation (short version in English)
- Data in Excel format
- SPSS data file, label_en.sps, Reg_Abs_All_en.sps, Reg_Intensi_All_en.sps and an example output

Central Limit Theorem (empty sheet used in class)

4
Sa 22.06.24 13:15

Teams present proposals for the final presentations!
brief ppt, no specific formal requirements but it should cover:
- Topic (Motivation)
- Research Question(s)
- Your "model"
- Data you want to use (check availability)
                                       -> please upload before class!

 

 

Statistical Inference: Population and sample
chap. 15. Determining Sample Size
               Confidence level and Normal curve


chap. 18. Hypothesis Testing

 

XL-files by Koop (zip), we are going to use (some of) them in class. Today we will use especially HPrice.xls

(7) Regression with dummy variables
with case study "Explaining House Prices" and "Firm Foundations in Bremen"

New Chapter 8 Qualitative Choice Models in 4 th edition (p119)
- The Economics of Choice
- Choice Probabilities and the Logit and Probit Models
- Appendix 8.1: Choice Probabilities in the Logit Model

Statistical software (examples):
SPSS: Education, product demos

- Aulis group Folder: ... Literature > SPSS you find some (_older_) Guides (of older versions); you also find the data file und some syntax files
- for more information you can search "SPSS tutorial", "SPSS syntax guide", ... in the web (e.g. "Brief Guide" SPSS 26, ...)
- Alternative: Statistics Package R with GUI RStudio, SAS, Stata, EViews, ...

Some example papers:
1) The Value of Safety as Revealed in the Swedish Car Market - An Application of the Hedonic Pricing Approach
2) A hedonic analysis of American collectable comic-book prices
3) Cinema Demand in Germany
4) Did you follow the debate about "The 90% question": relationship between debt and growth, see e.g. a report in the Economist or "The Reinhart-Rogoff Reassessment in the Media"?
- The original paper by Reinhart and Rogoff
- The (reply) paper by Herndon, Ash and Pollin, who on their webpage also provide a link to the dataset they used. Why not try it ... ??

Using SPSS
Review of (4) An introduction to simple regression and (5) Statistical Aspects of Regression (some aspects)
-> free ebook: "SPSS: Stats Practically Short and Simple" by Sidney Tyrrell
additional information: if you want (=you don't have to!) you can download a trial version of the statistical program SPSS that we are going to use in class -> product demos

Review and conclusion + YOUR questions

Pres.
Sa 29.06.24 13:15

              Teams' presentations

 

The presentation time should be approx. 5-10 minutes per student ~> max 30 minutes per team.
You are expected to deliver a handout for students. (The handout has to be a structured (Word-) file - I recommend to use the same numbered structure as in the presentation)

Thank you for uploading the presentations and handouts in Aulis up to Friday 28 June 2024 6 p.m.!

Please note the:
- the marking grid that I will use to grade your presentations
- and my "Recommendations for QM presentations.docx"

Here you find a best practice example of a presentation

Don't forget to use - and quote correctly - academic literature, especially articles from academic journals.

To be found in a library database (for example Selected Resources - Faculty 1: International Business at TB Economics and Nautical Sciences at SUUB Bremen).
Best database: EconLit

 

House-Teamwork: The teams are asked to prepare their tasks and present them in class.

Date \ Group:
All
Alfa
Bravo
Charlie
Delta
 
Teams: -->
Alexander, Angela, Vladyslaw  Inken, Kira, Sosa Mary, Partha  

1st session
teamwork in class

Discussion and brief presentation in class about project -> Memo        

Please PREPARE the solution process for 3rd session
Sa 25.05.24

7 to 10 min. per team !!!

Now it's the big day: You've spent the last 5 weeks analysing the data for the museum and today you present your results to the management of your customer:

Introduction: we are ...
Agenda, Topics
+ socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents

All Groups: define management dilemas and => Management / Research Questions for your topic !

... origin of the visitors

and their socio-demographic characteristics for the different groups (question 26 ff in last colum)

including multivariate analysis: use pivot-tables to analyse your variable (mean / percentage) broken down by two dimensions)

... Inducement to visit the exhibition (question 1)

and their socio-demographic characteristics for the different groups

including multivariate analysis: use pivot-tables to analyse your variable (mean / percentage) broken down by two dimensions)

... Reason to visit the exhibition (question 3)

and their socio-demographic characteristics for the different groups (these are only the out-of-town visitors)

including multivariate analysis: use pivot-tables to analyse your variable (mean / percentage) broken down by two dimensions)

 ... Motivation to visit the exhibition (question 17)

and their socio-demographic characteristics for the different groups

including multivariate analysis: use pivot-tables to analyse your variable (mean / percentage) broken down by two dimensions)

To be used IN class in 3. session

"College Town": All groups should perform
(i) one simple correlation and regression (interpret!)    ... and:

(a) price / quantity  (b) advertising expenditures / quantity (c) distance / quantity (d) distance / advertising expenditures
- " -

CollegeTownQuestion.doc, College_Town.xls

(ii) the multiple regression, answering ...

(j) what happens if FCI increases the rent by 100 and advertising by 20
+ general recommendations
(i) what happens if FCI decreases the rent by 50
+ general recommendations
(h) what happens if FCI increases the rent by 50 and advertising by 10
+ general recommendations
(g) what happens if an appartment building is located 5 miles further away than the average distance
+ general recommendations
(t.b.a.) please read the papers and deliver a very brief summary of the research question and results in class:
- do NOT spend more than 30-45 minutes to read the paper !!!
- presentation should be 5-10 minutes

1) The Value of Safety as Revealed in the Swedish Car Market - An Application of the Hedonic Pricing Approach

2) A hedonic analysis of American collectable comic-book prices

3) Cinema Demand in Germany  4) Bremen Happiness Index


Literatur Research:

Possibilities of the University Library: Econmics & Business Studies, Selected Resources - Faculty 1: International Business, Data Bases and RefWorks

- EconLit
- OECD iLibrary: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/
- Web of Science: http://isiknowledge.com/wos

RefWorks: -> http://www.refworks.com (Gruppencode: RWUBremen)
RefWorks –Youtube-Channel | http://www.youtube.com/user/ProQuestRefWorks

- RefWorks information on the SuUB homepage
- RefWorks - short guide
- Modifying an Output Style (and Sharing)

Additional tools
Write’N’Cite (short guide) - http://youtu.be/qObr6QoBh2c
OneLine/Cite View (alternative to Write’n’Cite) - https://www.library.ohiou.edu/find/refworks/oneline-citeview.html
RefGrab-It (web pages) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25yPHGyx3T4

 

Some Potential Data Sources:

ECB

EC

OECD

World Bank

IMF

WTO

UNCTAD

CIA

Index Mundi

FRED

Data Market

Telegraph

US Energy Administration

BBC

International Property Prices

Worldwide Tax

Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

Deutsche Bank Research

Statistical Bureau of the European Commission

Journals

Blogs

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Bremen University of Applied Sciences
Department of Business Studies
Economics & Statistics